The appointment of Tunji Disu as Acting Inspector-General of Police comes at a defining moment for Nigeria’s internal security system. With millions of Nigerians directly affected by crime in the past year and public confidence in law enforcement under strain, the leadership of the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) carries unusually high expectations.
Disu succeeds Kayode Egbetokun, inheriting both ongoing reform efforts and persistent structural challenges. His tenure will likely be judged not by rhetoric, but by measurable outcomes.
The central question is straightforward: what must change — and how will Nigerians know if it has?
From Reactive to Preventive Policing
One of the most consistent criticisms of policing in Nigeria is its reactive posture. Arrests are often announced after major crimes, but prevention remains weak.
Recent national crime data indicates that Nigerian households reported thousands of crime incidents within a 12-month period, including thousands of kidnapping cases. The scale alone suggests a system under strain.
For Disu, the benchmark will be visible improvement in intelligence-led policing for
faster response times, stronger inter-state coordination and more disruption of criminal networks before attacks occur. If highways become demonstrably safer and communities see fewer repeat attacks, that would signal operational progress.
Improving Reporting and Public Trust
A striking statistic from recent surveys is that a significant percentage of crime victims do not report incidents to the police. This reflects not only fear of retaliation but also lack of confidence in response effectiveness. Trust is measurable. Indicators include: increased crime reporting rates, reduced complaints of harassment and unlawful detention, and greater community cooperation in investigations.
The memory of the 2020 #EndSARS protests still shapes public perception. Reform efforts since then have been incremental, but many Nigerians believe deeper cultural change within the Force remains unfinished.
Disu’s leadership will be assessed on whether professionalism becomes more visible at checkpoints, police stations and during public order operations.
Turning Arrests into Convictions
Arrest figures frequently make headlines. Convictions tell a more meaningful story.
While the Nigeria Police Force has recorded thousands of arrests and prosecutions in recent years, conviction rates relative to total reported crimes remain modest when placed against the broader scale of criminal incidents.
For meaningful reform, investigations must be stronger, evidence handling more rigorous, and coordination with prosecutors more seamless. Improving forensic capacity and case-building processes could significantly increase conviction outcomes — and deterrence. If crime statistics begin to decline alongside stable or rising conviction rates, that would indicate systemic improvement rather than statistical manipulation.
Closing the Manpower Gap
Nigeria’s police-to-citizen ratio remains below the United Nations recommended standard of roughly one officer per 450 citizens. Estimates place Nigeria’s ratio significantly higher (1:600-650) — meaning fewer officers per capita. This gap affects response times, patrol visibility, rural and highway security coverage.
Recruitment drives have been announced, but recruitment alone is insufficient. Training quality, equipment availability and supervision standards determine effectiveness.
A credible reform path would include transparent recruitment, modern training modules as well as improved officer welfare and insurance systems. Policing cannot improve sustainably if morale remains low.
Technology and Modern Crime
Criminal activity is increasingly digital and mobile. Kidnapping syndicates use encrypted communications. Financial crimes operate across digital platforms. Criminal groups coordinate across states. For
modern policing to be effective, functional digital crime databases,
expanded forensic laboratories and integrated command-and-control communication systems are required. If the Force improves digital investigation capacity and evidence management, prosecution success rates could rise significantly.
Political Neutrality and Institutional Integrity
The Office of the Inspector-General operates within a political system. However, public trust depends heavily on perceived neutrality.
As Acting IGP, Disu will be expected to enforce the law impartially — particularly in politically sensitive periods. The perception of partisanship can quickly erode credibility.
Institutional integrity may prove as important as tactical success.
The Measurable Test
Ultimately, Nigerians are not looking for theoretical reform. They are looking for lived improvement. Within the next year, key indicators will include: wether kidnapping numbers declining and response times improving; wether more crimes are being reported to police, whether conviction rates are rising and public confidence strengthening.
Acting IGP Tunji Disu steps into office with experience and institutional knowledge. But the weight of expectation is clear: incremental change will not be enough.
For millions of Nigerians navigating daily insecurity, reform is not an abstract policy goal. It is a matter of safety, dignity and trust. His tenure will be defined not by appointment, but by outcomes.
