World merchandise trade rose 2 per cent to US$24.43 trillion in 2024, after falling by 4 per cent in 2023, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
WTO, in its Annual Report for 2025, released on Thursday, said China was the largest exporter (US$ 3.58 trillion) while the United States remained the largest importer (US$ 3.36 trillion).
The report said the European Union was the second largest trader on both the export side and the import side. Merchandise exports of least developed countries rose 5 per cent, to US$ 275 billion, after dropping 2 per cent in 2023.
According to the report, the 2024 world merchandise trade volume growth of 2.9 per cent was stronger than the world GDP growth at market exchange rates of 2.8 per cent for the first time since 2017, excluding the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.
It said all regions recorded positive growth in exports and imports except for Europe, where both contracted.
In particular, the report said the trade within the European Union fell 3.2 per cent, which weighed down on regional and global totals. It said the world trade growth excluding intra-EU trade was even stronger at 4.3 per cent, well above global GDP growth.
The WTO report said the world trade growth in value terms was moderate in most product categories last year, adding that Trade in manufactured goods grew in line with total merchandise trade at 2 per cent. Meanwhile, trade in agricultural products grew slightly faster at 3 per cent.
According to the report, Trade in fuels and mining products declined by 5 per cent. It said Trade in office and telecommunications equipment rose sharply (up around 10 per cent), while trade in iron and steel contracted (down 6 per cent).
“Trade in most product categories has risen sharply since the pre-pandemic period, leaving total merchandise exports up 27per cent between 2019 and 2024,” it added.
It said at the start of 2025, WTO economists expected growth in world merchandise trade volume to remain steady at 2.7 percent for the year. However, rising tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty prompted the WTO Secretariat to downgrade its forecast – to a -0.2per cent contraction – in the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report issued in April 2025.
Since then, it said the tariffs have continued to fluctuate, with each policy shift having an impact on the trade forecast.
Also in 2024, services trade increased by 9per cent in value terms, mirroring growth in 2023. All broad sectors contributed to the rise, including transport (up 8 per cent), travel (up 13 percent), goods-related services (up 5 per cent) and other commercial services (up8 per cent).
“By the end of 2024, global tourist arrivals were just 1 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, according to UN Tourism. The category “other commercial services”, which accounts for around 60 per cent of total services trade, expanded by 8 per cent in 2024.
“The category encompasses a wide variety of sub-sectors, including digitally deliverable services such as computer, financial, business and insurance services. Computer services, in particular, recorded an impressive increase in 2024, surging 12 per cent and reaching the US$ 1 trillion mark,” it added.
The report said the global exports of digitally delivered services rose by 8.3 per cent in 2024, reaching US$ 4.64trillion in 2024. “The share of these services is increasing, accounting for14.5 per cent of world exports of goods and services,” according to the report.
Commenting on the report, the Director-General of the WTO, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said the WTO rules and norms have made a major contribution to strengthening the global economy.
According to her, both the rich and poor countries have benefited from increased growth, purchasing power and macroeconomic stability.
While affirming that the Trade has helped lift 1.5 billion people out of extreme poverty, the WTO boss said the global trading system is today experiencing its worst disruptions since the Second World War.
“Multilateral cooperation itself is being called into question. While the volume of merchandise and services trade grew by 2.9 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively in 2024 – the main period covered by this report – the picture for 2025 looks very different.
“At time of writing in mid-July, amid new tariff announcements, WTO economists have downgraded expectations for merchandise trade volume growth by nearly three percentage points and now expect a 0.2 per cent contraction in 2025.
“In light of the high levels of policy uncertainty, this still reflects the considerable – and welcome – resilience trade continues to exhibit. Nevertheless, downside risks abound.
“Additional cause for concern comes from potential signs of fragmentation in world trade. If trade fractures along geopolitical lines, there will be detrimental consequences for global economic growth, with low-income economies suffering the worst welfare losses.
“One silver lining of the current disruptions is that they have reminded many governments, businesses and households why the predictable trading conditions they had come to take for granted are so valuable.
“They have led to a renewed appreciation for the stability the WTO continues to provide to global trade: even with all the trade measures introduced since the start of 2025, core WTO most-favoured-nation tariff terms underpin about 74 per cent of global merchandise trade.
“It is vital for WTO members to shore up these foundations and build on them so that trade can continue to deliver for people and for the planet. The WTO has an important role to play as a forum where all 166 of our members can share their trade concerns and propose solutions,” she said.
