With Mobile technologies and services now generating around 5.8% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a contribution that amounts to about $6.5 trillion of economic value, there are strong projections that by 2030, this figure will rise to almost $11 trillion, or 8.4% of GDP.
Global System of Mobile Communications Association (GSMA) says much of this will be driven by countries around the world increasingly benefiting from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services and digital technologies, including 5G, Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
The GSMA recently introduced the 5G Connectivity Index to provide insights into 5G performance in 39 markets in order to encourage informed decision-making. In terms of Economic Impact, the GSMA emphasizes the economic benefits of mobile technologies and services, including 5G, projecting that they will contribute significantly to GDP growth by 2030.
“The GSMA provides specific reports and analyses on 5G in different regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia ,Middle East among others highlighting the progress and challenges of 5G deployment in specific areas.”
In Sub Saharan Africa for instance with particular attention on Nigeria,South Africa,Egypt,Kenya and Botswana among others some measure of progress in deployment has been recorded.
The rollout of 5G has brought immense benefits across multiple industry sectors, particularly those involving internet of things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications in which the real-time transfer of data is crucial.
More broadly, the adoption of 5G is expected to accompany increased data use across the globe, with forecasts anticipating mobile data traffic of over 300 exabytes per month by 2030, more than twice the volume consumed in 2024 according to Statista.
And with a third of global population expected to be covered by this fifth generation (5G) networks ,a technology that has defined new ways of communication by 2025, GSMA says the technology has surpassed growth projections of all times.
“5G subscriptions increased by 163 million during the third quarter 2024 to total 2.1 billion. 5G subscriptions reached close to 2.3 billion by the end of 2024 accounting for more than 25 percent of all global mobile subscriptions.
“4G subscriptions continue to decline as subscribers migrate to 5G,” according to GSMA.
As of the first quarter of 2024, there were nearly two billion 5G connections worldwide, with 185 million new additions. This is expected to grow to 7.7 billion by 2028.
Statistics show that 5G is the fastest-growing mobile broadband technology, reaching 1.5 billion connections by the end of 2023. It only took four years to reach this number, compared to 10 years for 3G and more than five years for 4G.
“5G is more than a new generation of technologies; it denotes a new era in which connectivity will become increasingly fluid and flexible.5G Networks will adapt to applications and performance will be tailored precisely to the needs of the user” GSMA submits.
By covering one-third of the world’s population, impact on the mobile industry and its customers will be profound according to GSMA.
To deepen the spread of 5G ,GSMA is working closely with the mobile operators pioneering 5G, “by engaging with governments, vertical industries including automotive, financial services, healthcare providers, transport operators, utilities and other industry sectors to develop business cases for 5G.”
And In order to accelerate the growth and spread, many operators are said to be deploying AI technology as part of an integral part of telecoms operators’ strategic and operational plans.
“Operators are making important advancements in the deployment of AI technology, which is serving as a transformative force shaping the telecoms industry. By deploying autonomous AI-based systems, operators can enhance operational efficiency, customer satisfaction and security, while also creating new revenue opportunities”.
China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States are the leading countries with robust 5G coverage in the world. Since the first commercial launches of the fifth generation of mobile networks in late 2018, these five countries have emerged as leaders because multiple companies in these countries have deployed networks and are selling compatible devices.
Countries including Switzerland and Finland are up and comers in 5G development, though they have limited deployment. In China there are three Companies leading in deployment.
The world’s largest 5G network was launched by the three largest Chinese network operators Oct 31, 2019, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua. These are China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom which all activated their networks in less than five months after they were issued 5G licenses.
Each of the network operators offered their 5G services at $18 per month in 50 Chinese cities at the beginning of the launch.
GSMA expects 36% of China’s mobile users to be using 5G by 2025. That’s about 600 million subscribers, who would also make up 40% of the entire global 5G market by this year. This is all despite efforts made by the United States government to hamper the progress of Chinese vendors, though those efforts may affect how Chinese companies may expand into the global market.
In South Korea,SK Telecom and Korea Telecom run as the main competitors for the South Korean 5G market. SK Telecom acquired spectrum in the 3.5 GHz and 28 GHz frequencies to prepare for deploying 5G. In April of 2019, the Enterprise claimed to be the first mobile carrier in the world to launch 5G services to work on 5G smartphones.
SK Telecom asserted an edge over rival Verizon, as the former launched 5G services available at the same time as Samsung Galaxy S10 5G smartphone launched in South Korea. Verizon launched mobile 5G services in the U.S. before a 5G enabled smartphone was available to U.S. consumers.
SK Telecom also conducted tests with a 5G Standalone (SA) Core (a core not reliant on the 4G network) for their 5G network in cooperation with Samsung Electronics.
The world’s largest 5G network was launched by the three largest Chinese network operators Oct 31, 2019, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua. These are China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom which all activated their networks in less than five months after they were issued 5G licenses.
Each of the network operators offered their 5G services at $18 per month in 50 Chinese cities at the beginning of the launch.
“What we are seeing is a concerted effort by the Chinese — the operators, vendors, and government regulators — to deploy 5G as quickly as possible,” Chris Nicoll, principal analyst at ACG Research, pointed this out in a November 1, 2019 SDxCentral article. With all of these players working together, the three network operators had collectively deployed nearly 86,000 5G base stations peaked over 130,000 by the end of 2019.
The latter number breaks down into China Unicom and China telecom, with each planning to install 40,000 base stations, and the market leader China Mobile to install 50,000.This was the projection by 2019 but they have since overshot this by the beginning of 2024.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), says 5G coverage reached 40% of the world’s population in 2023 with an uneven coverage and distribution with developed countries having more coverage than low-income countries: In Europe ,68% of the population is covered and Americas had 59% of the population covered while Asia-Pacific has 42% of the population covered as at 2023.
Arab States have 12% of the population covered. Commonwealth Independent of States (CIS) had 8% of the population covered. ITU figures show Africa,s coverage rose to 10 % of the population by 2023 .
The ITU also notes that 90% of the world’s population is covered by 4G, but 55% of people without access to 4G live in low-income countries because In low-income countries, 3G is often the only technology available to connect to the Internet.
The ITU develops and adopts international regulations and global standards to enable the harmonization and implementation of broadband mobile networks. In Africa, around a dozen nations have launched services including Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Madagascar, Nigeria, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Zimbabwe, and Zambia but Africa is a patchwork of 54 countries. And penetration is predicted to be slow. By 2027, Ericsson predicts that 80 percent of phone users in Europe will have 5G service.
At the same time, 5G subscriptions in Africa, home to 1.4 billion people, May stagnate at a little over 10 percent. Why will so few people in Africa get access to 5G services? China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States remain the leading countries with robust 5G coverage in the world.
While many countries are already providing robust services,Africa remains on the outskirts of 5G services. The countries in Africa that have launched 5G networks, include South Africa with its roll out In March 2022, when the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) sold spectrum across several bands.
In Nigeria, MTN rolled out commercial 5G services in Lagos in 2022, with other roll out in Abuja, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, Owerri, and Maiduguri among others.
MTN Congo announced that it was the first country in Central Africa to deploy 5G. In Botswana Orange deployed 5G technology to provide new services in the Gaborone and Francistown regions.
Other countries in Africa that have launched 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services include: Angola, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Analysts say “5G’s potential is growing due to its ability to deliver fiber-like speeds.
However, there are still challenges in the region, such as: Urban areas are reaching their maximum capacity whereas a large portion of the population lives in rural areas. This explains why 5G adoption in the sub-Saharan region is currently below six percent “ Analysts report that 5G deployment in Africa faces many challenges, including Spectrum assignment, regulatory issues, infrastructure, security, financial resources among others.
“Spectrum is a limited resource that is already in use by other services, such as TV broadcasters and satellite operators. Governments need to open up frequencies and grant 5G licenses at reasonable prices.
“Infrastructure is another major challenge. “5G networks require a large initial investment, including expensive devices, antennas, and Radio Access Network (RAN) hardware. The infrastructure needs to be fiberized to support 5G services. Regulatory conditions also serve as challenges to deployment.
For instance “regulatory authorities may not have started the process for licensing and granting frequencies in the right portion.
“Most of the equipment and devices required for 5G deployment need to be imported.”
There are also security challenges that make 5G technology vulnerable to cyber security threats, such as tracking calls and exposing user locations.
