ANALYSIS: Evaluating Recent Nigeria’s Oil Output Gains And Pipeline Vandalism
By Sunday Etuka
Nigeria pumped more crude oil in May than it had in nearly a year, a rebound strong enough to push the country back above the production target set for it by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Yet, the menace of pipeline vandalism is a threat – a reminder that the nation’s production gains are only as secure as the steel that carries them to the market.
According to the recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s combined crude oil and condensate output averaged 1, 700, 800 barrels per day in May, made up of 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil and 170,446 barrels of condensate.
The crude oil figure alone equals 102% of Nigeria’s 1.5m bpd OPEC quota and is the highest the country has recorded since January 2025, a 15-month high. Combined output, meanwhile, is the strongest since July 2025, when production reached 1,712,282 bpd.
Daily figures during the month swung between 1.51 million and 1.86 million bpd, and output rose 2.77% from April, continuing steady five-month climb from 1.48 million bpd in February, to 1.54 million bpd in March, 1.66 million in April and now 1.7 million bpd in May.
The recovery was broad-based rather than concentrated in one stream. Bonny Terminal led all production points with 293,870 bpd, trailed closely by Forcados Terminal at 289,900 bpd. Qua Iboe added 173,360 bpd, Escravos Oil Terminal contributed 135,470 bpd, and the Odudu stream, blended with Amenam crude rounded out the top five at 63,250 bpd.
NUPRC attributed the upswing to a stretch of operational stability with no major pipeline or facility outages, alongside the completion of previously scheduled turnaround maintenance that had constrained output earlier in the year.
Gas production also told a similar story of steady gains. Output rose to 7.93 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day in May, up 0.63% from the same month in 2025, with associated and non-associated gas now contributing almost equally, 3.96bcf/d and 3.98bcf/d respectively, a sign that Nigeria’s dedicated gas projects are beginning to carry real weight in the production mix rather than relying solely on gas produced alongside crude.
Domestic gas sales climbed to 2.18bcf/d, about 26.6% of total output, even as export volumes eased to 3.07bcf/d. Roughly a quarter of production went to own-use, while 6.9%, or 0.57bcf/d, was flared, a figure that NUPRC frames against the country’s pledge to end routine flaring by 2030.
Year-on-year, gas production has averaged 7.87bcf/d, climbing from 7.82bcf/d in the first quarter.
The progress, however, has unfolded alongside a quieter and more persistent threat: the theft and vandalism of the pipeline network that moves crude from the wellhead to export terminals. In 2025 alone, Nigeria lost an estimated N8.41 trillion to oil theft, showing how destructive the menace is to the nation’s revenue generation.
On Tuesday, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), through its Industry Wide Security Architecture and the Nigerian Pipelines and Storage Company (NPSC), led a joint inspection of a vandalised section of NPSC pipeline at Pai Community in the Kwalli Area Council of the FCT.
The visit, which also drew officials from the Office of the National Security Adviser’s Special Prosecution Team, the FCT Police Command and the Nigerian Army, followed the arrest of three suspected vandals in the nearby Piri and and Pai Communities.
NPSC, an NNPC Subsidiary, manages more than 5,000 Kilometres of crude oil and products pipeline, a network that has come under increasing strain from organised theft since 2024. Investigators say criminals posing as “taskforce for recovery of abandoned pipelines” have worked with local accomplices to dig out and strip sections of pipe.
The nation recorded 19 such cases in 2025, with roughly nine kilometres of pipeline stolen along Enugu-Makurdi-Yola Corridor and between Piri and Izom on the Warri-Kaduna line. Five more cases have already surfaced in 2026, at Pai-Kwali and Gwagwalada along the Warri-Kaduna Corridor and at Badanga on the Jos-Gombe line.
Speaking through Chief Interface Officer, Dahiru Sani-Gwarzo, NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, said the recent arrests were part of a broader campaign to dismantle the networks behind the attacks, adding the company’s focus now was on the masterminds and sponsors rather than just those caught digging up pipe.
FCT Police Commissioner, Ahmed Sanusi said the arrests followed sustained intelligence gathering and surveillance, and that the investigation had already produced leads on who was sponsoring and receiving the stolen materials.
Officials from ONSA, the Nigerian Army and the National Assembly struck a similar note: Director of Energy Security, Goodluck Ebele, appealed for public tips to help curb sabotage, Lt. Col. J.O. Ajongbo, reaffirmed the Army’s role in protecting energy assets, and Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Petroleum Resources (Upstream), Hon. Sesi Whingan, pledged legislative support for tougher deterrent measures.
Taken together, the two sets of developments capture a familiar tension in Nigeria’s oil sector: production is climbing on the back of operational stability and completed maintenance work, but sustaining that momentum will depend on how effectively the country can protect the very infrastructure delivering the gains.
