There is a saying that the best time to prepare for war is when there is no war. Consequently, any preparation done during war may be counter-productive. Nevertheless, it is better late than never.
In April this year, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), an agency under the supervision of the Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation, alerted through its 2024 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) of impending flood in the country.
NIHSA has the responsibility for the provision of information on flood forecasts, alerts and monitoring of all the major rivers in Nigeria including the transboundary Rivers Niger and Benue.
The Outlook shows that 148 LGA in 31 states fall within the High Flood Risk while 249 LGA fall within the Moderate Flood Risk Areas with the remaining 377 LGA falling within the Low Flood Risk Areas.
The high flood risk states predicted are Adamawa, Akwa-Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross-River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT.
The 2024 AFO was further elaborated into three scenarios taking into consideration the hydrological year and the onset of the rains in Nigeria.
In scenario I, the agency predicted that for the months of April – June (AMJ), 72 LGAs would be at high flood risk, while 63 LGAs would face moderate flood risk.
In Scenario II, for the months of July – September (JAS), 135 LGAs and 221 LGAs are likely to be impacted by high and moderate flood risks respectively.
Scenario III, for the months of October – November (ON) 44 LGAs and 100 LGAs were predicted to be in high and moderate flood risk zones.
To avert the ugly flooding menace of the past years, the state governments were alerted, stakeholders meeting was convened, and measures were reel out for them to follow.
Sadly, the advice fell on deaf ears as no preventive measures were put in place by most of the state governments to avert the flood related disasters in their domains.
This is to show that lessons were not learnt from the previous experiences. For instance, in 2022, October precisely, the floods affected 34 out of the 36 states. Killed over 600, injured over 2,400 and displaced more than 1.4 million people.
It also destroyed over 300,000 houses and 569,251 hectares of firm land worsening the food insecurity in the country. In addition, the nation lost an estimated $6.68 billion (N4.2 trillion) to the 2022 floods.
In 2023, the story is not any better as the country lost about $4.6 billion to floods, according to the report by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
Just recently, during a Press Briefing, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof, Joseph Utsev disclosed that some States have started experiencing varying levels of flooding and its associated disasters as early as April this year.
He further revealed that so far, more than ten (10) States of the Federation and the FCT have experienced one degree of flooding or the other with several casualties recorded including displacement of people and loss of property.
For example, he said, the torrential downpour in the early hours of 24th June, 2024 in the FCT resulted in flooding of Trade More Estate in Lugbe where 2 deaths were reported and several houses submerged. AMAC, Kuje, Gwagwalada, Bwari, Kwali LGAs have also been flooded.
According to him, other affected States and LGAs were: Anambra (Onitsha North), Edo (Benin), Benue (Makurdi), Kwara (Oke-Ero, Moro), Lagos (Agege, Alimosho, Ikorodu, Lagos Island, Ikeja, Eti-Osa), Ogun (Ijebu-Ode), Osun (Oriade), Nasarawa (Doma), Taraba (Takum, Sarduna), and Yobe”.
Prof. Utsev said, as at today, both Kainji and Jebba Dams on River Niger are still impounding water into their reservoirs, even Shiroro Dam on river Kaduna is equally impounding water, noting that no water has yet been released from any of the Dams within and outside Nigeria.
However, he disclosed that River Flooding is expected beginning from this month (July 2024), therefore, States like Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Adamawa, Benue, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Jigawa, Kogi, Kebbi, Kaduna, Niger, Nasarawa, Ondo, Ogun, Rivers, Taraba and the FCT would likely be impacted as predicted.
He warned that as rainfall increases both in frequency and intensity, particularly in southern part of the country, it would also increase the level of flooding and may worsen the ravaging cholera outbreak.
On international flow situation, he said, the flow in Kainji and Jebba reservoirs, River Niger, Lokoja, Kogi (confluence of Rivers Niger and Benue), River Benue Sub-Basin, Wuroboki in Adamawa are all within normal level.
Meanwhile, he said, the Ministry would “keep monitoring the development on this flank and put close tab on other monitoring stations as we are approaching the critical months”.
He highlighted some of the measures that should be urgently taken by the state governments to prevent the loss of lives and properties this year.
These include, “educating citizens to imbibe attitudinal change towards warnings for flood prevention by Government Agencies and desist from unethical traditional culture and beliefs.
“Clearing of blocked drainage systems and canals, and Relocation of people living along the water-ways and those that are having socio-economic activities on the flood plains, by the Federal, State and Local Governments.
“Consideration for channelization/training of major rivers in the country. States and Local Governments are encouraged to desilt river channels and canals and to construct/create buffer (or detention basins) in their respective constituencies to collect runoff waters.
“Modification of settlements to withstand floods by putting up flood barriers, and Construction of dykes, flood-walls, buffer dams detention basins and water retaining structures.
“Effective and efficient operational procedure for dams and reservoirs and maintenance of other hydraulic and water infrastructure across the country”.
