The Federal government has warned of a prolonged Little Dry Season, popularly known as the August Break in parts of southern Nigeria, alongside warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the country.
Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo gave the warning on Tuesday at the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction( SCP) in Abuja.
“The Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break,’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States.
“The number of days with little or no rainfall will range between 28 and 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo States,” the Minister said.
Keyamo said climate science and early warning systems have become critical tools for national development, safety and economic planning.
The minister noted that the Seasonal Climate Prediction, produced by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), has continued to deliver measurable benefits to agriculture, aviation, disaster risk reduction and other key sectors of the economy.
He said feedback from both public and private sector users confirmed that the effective application of SCP information has improved crop yields and reduced climate-related losses.
According to the minister, the federal government places strong emphasis on food security, infrastructure resilience, climate adaptation and the protection of lives and livelihoods, making timely and accurate climate information a strategic national asset.
“The days of treating weather and climate warnings as distant dangers are behind us. Climate science is now central to governance and sustainable development,” Keyamo said.
Presenting highlights of the 2026 prediction, the minister disclosed that global climate indicators such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggest a predominantly neutral ENSO phase in 2026, with implications for rainfall distribution and temperature patterns across Nigeria.
The SCP further projects warmer-than-average daytime and nighttime temperatures in January, February, March and May 2026 across most parts of the country.
“For 2026, these indicators point to a predominantly neutral ENSO phase, with important implications for rainfall distribution, temperature Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.
Keyamo stressed that reliable meteorological data remains indispensable to safe and efficient aviation operations, as well as to broader economic growth.
He reaffirmed the ministry’s continued support for NiMet to ensure the provision of accurate weather and climate services nationwide.
Keyamo reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to strengthening NiMet as a centre of excellence in weather and climate services and a trusted provider of scientific guidance for national development.
In his remarks the Director General of NiMet Professor Charles Anosike reaffirmed commitment to providing science-based climate information to support national planning and climate resilience.
Anosike said reliable weather and climate data had become critical as climate variability and extreme weather events increasingly threaten lives, livelihoods and economic growth.
He disclosed that NiMet is strengthening its forecasting capacity through the adoption of emerging technologies, including Artificial Intelligence, with a dedicated team already in place to integrate AI into operational services.
The DG called for stronger collaboration with state governments to expand the reach of the 2026 SCP, stressing that NiMet remains committed to delivering timely, accurate and reliable climate information to build a resilient Nigerian economy.
