Global Goods Trade Resilient Despite Middle East Conflict, High Energy Prices -WTO
By Sunday Etuka
Global merchandise trade has remained resilient in the first half of 2026 despite headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and elevated energy prices, according to the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer.
The barometer, a composite leading indicator that tracks the trajectory of world merchandise trade relative to recent trends, recorded a reading of 101.7, down marginally from 102.3 in January but still above the baseline value of 100 that separates above-trend from below-trend volumes.
According to the barometer, actual quarterly trade volumes have remained above trend continuously since the start of 2025.
Analysts at the WTO point to surging demand for electronic components linked artificial intelligence investment as a key factor offsetting the negative effects of the Middle East conflict.
The electronic components index stands at 105.5, the only component index to have risen firmly above trend, reflecting accelerating global investment in AI infrastructure. The remaining component indices are clustered near the 100 baseline.
Agricultural raw materials (98.9%) and automotive products (99.8%) are both marginally below trend, while the export orders index, considered highly predictive, sits just above at 100.5.
Transport indicators also point to continued, if moderating, expansion: air freight registered 102.2 and container shipping 102.4, both signalling growth at a slower pace than in recent months.
“On balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signalling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth,” the WTO said.
The WTO’s most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released on 19 March 2026, projected merchandise trade growth of 1.9% for the year under a baseline scenario. Under a high energy price scenario, reflecting a drag from the Middle East tensions, that figure drops to 1.4%. However, sustained AI investment could add as much as 5.0% points to the growth rate, the WTO said.
