Nigeria can only reach investment grade status by 2030 if it raises government revenue, reduces the cost of servicing its debts and keeps the economy growing fast enough to lift its sovereign creditworthiness, credit rating agency DataPro has said.
The position was contained in the Monthly Rating Brief for November 2026, which the agency released on Monday.
It drew on remarks by the Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, at DataPro’s 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar, themed “Achieving Investment Grade Rating By 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria.”
According to the brief, the proposed National Development Plan (NDP) 2026 to 2030 sets ambitious targets. It cautioned that meeting them will require consistent reforms and measurable gains in the country’s economic fundamentals.
On revenue, the plan projects that government income will rise from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030. DataPro said this will call for better tax compliance, more efficient revenue administration and reduced reliance on volatile oil receipts.
The agency described debt servicing as a related challenge. It noted that the International Monetary Fund estimated Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2025.
The plan projects that the Federal Government’s debt service to revenue ratio will drop from 62.93 per cent in 2025 to 21.01 per cent in 2030, an improvement that will depend on sustained revenue growth, prudent borrowing and effective debt management.
Dr. Uzoka-Anite said borrowing should expand productive capacity instead of prolonging fiscal pressures. She identified Sukuk, Green Bonds and carefully structured Public Private Partnerships as financing options, provided fiscal risks and value for money are properly assessed.
The Minister named agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics as sectors that can drive diversification. She said infrastructure gaps, unreliable energy supply and limited access to finance remain important constraints.
The NDP projects average real GDP growth of 7.79 per cent between 2026 and 2030, rising to 10.34 per cent in the final year. The private sector is expected to provide about 72 per cent of cumulative investment over the period.
DataPro said realising this will need a predictable policy environment and better conditions for businesses to invest, expand production and strengthen domestic value chains.
The brief added that investor confidence also depends on policy consistency, institutional effectiveness, transparency and reliable economic data.
The Minister pointed to efforts to strengthen public financial management, improve project monitoring and align the NDP with annual budgets and sectoral programmes.
DataPro stressed that the credibility of the plan will rest on its execution, and that higher revenue, more manageable debt and stronger productivity must produce measurable outcomes rather than remain projections.
The agency said Nigeria’s ambition to become a diversified, resilient and globally competitive US$1 trillion economy by 2030 offers a broader framework for the transition.
As the Minister emphasised, however, investment grade status should result from stronger fundamentals, sustainable public finances and credible institutions, and should not be treated as an end in itself.
Nigeria’s progress will therefore depend on its ability to sustain reforms and show real improvement in its capacity to meet financial obligations and withstand economic shocks.
