The latest report by the Access Bank Plc’s Economic Intelligence Unit, has projected the nation’s headline inflation rate to further moderate to 16.84% in October, 2025.
The unit uses an autoregressive model with data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation expectations to make its projections.
According to the report, the headline inflation is expected to ease to 16.84% year-over-year in October 2025, from 18.02% in September, representing a 1.18 percentage point decline.
The report also said the inflation would decline further in the near term, supported by sustained exchange rate stability and improved food supplies from the ongoing harvest season.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by 2.1 points to 129.8 points in October 2025 from the previous month.
The unit disclosed that the methodology used by the report entails the application of an autoregressive model using lags of the composite consumer price index (CPI) and a survey-based inflation expectation within the same product definitions adopted by the NBS.
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), had projected the inflation rate to decline to 15% in 2025.
Speaking in London in June, the CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, who announced the projection, said the inflationary pressure has started dropping as a result of the central bank’s policy measures.
The projection was based on factors like improved exchange rate stability and increased local refining capacity.
It was also based on the expectation that the main drivers of high inflation in 2024, such as foreign exchange volatility and fuel subsidy removal, will have a diminished impact.
