Emerging Evidence Suggests Nigeria’s Out-Of-School Population Maybe Inflated -Alausa
By Alice Etuka, Abuja
The Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa says emerging evidence from state-level household surveys suggests that the historical estimates of Nigeria’s out-of-school population may have significantly overstated the actual number.
Special Adviser to the Minister on Media and Communications, Ikharo Attah disclosed this in a statement on Sunday.
Attah said the Minister stated this over the weekend in Abuja while receiving the outcomes of the 2025 Nigeria 2050: Child Foresight Analysis for Futures Literacy and Intergenerational Equity, a flagship initiative of the Anticipatory Governance and Foresight Capacity Programme of the Office of the Vice President, implemented with technical support from UNICEF.
Alausa questioned the long-standing estimates placing Nigeria’s out-of-school population at between 15 million and 17 million, saying the figures had been repeatedly cited without a sufficiently comprehensive household-level count.
According to him, emerging evidence from state-level household surveys suggests that the historical estimates may significantly overstate the actual number.
He cited Kaduna State, where a household survey covering more than 90 per cent of households reportedly produced a figure of less than 190,000 out-of-school children against an earlier estimate of about 585,000.
He also referred to another Kaduna estimate of about 1.2 million, which he said fell to less than 100,000 following a general household survey.
Jigawa State, he added, had also recorded significant differences between existing estimates and the results of its own household-level assessment.
Alausa said reliable data would enable government to determine where children are out of school, understand the reasons for exclusion, target infrastructure and interventions more accurately, and monitor whether children who return to school remain there.
He, however, stressed that any reduction in the estimated national figure would not lessen the urgency of the problem.
“Even if there’s significant reduction, any child out of school is still too many,” he said.
The Minister disclosed that more than one million children had been moved from the streets into school nationally over the past two and a half years, while Jigawa State alone had reportedly moved more than 180,000 children into school over the last two years.
He said the next challenge was to sustain enrolment, keep children in school and prevent new cases of school exclusion.
Alausa said the government was increasingly relying on digital education data to achieve this, noting significant progress in the 2026 Annual School Census through the digitised Nigerian Education Management Information System (NEMIS).
According to him, more than 56 per cent of public schools had entered their 2026 Annual School Census information, while 41 per cent of private schools had populated their records on the digital platform.
He described the growing participation of both public and private schools as a major step forward in strengthening education planning and accountability.
“Without data, you’re flying blind. Data will tell you everything,” the Minister said.
He explained that the data being generated would help the Ministry identify gaps in access and participation, monitor enrolment, plan infrastructure and assess the impact of education interventions more accurately.
The Minister said this was why education planning under NESRI was increasingly being anchored on reliable data rather than assumptions and historical estimates.
He also disclosed that the Ministry had conducted a national assessment to establish a baseline for literacy, numeracy and cognitive development among learners at the primary, junior secondary and senior secondary levels.
According to him, the assessment would provide a clearer picture of learning outcomes and enable government to measure the effectiveness of interventions over time.
Alausa said the data and reforms being generated across the education sector were directly relevant to the Child Foresight Analysis because the future of Nigerian children could not be secured through projections alone.
He added that the foresight initiative provided an opportunity to embed long-term thinking, systems thinking, adaptive innovation and youth participation into national planning, while ensuring that decisions taken today protect the interests of future generations.
The Minister commended the Office of the Vice President, the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) and UNICEF for supporting the Child Foresight Analysis, describing the initiative as an important tool for moving Nigeria from reactive governance towards anticipatory action.
He said the Ministry would work to align the findings with NESRI, particularly in the areas of future literacy, long-term education planning, skills development, data systems and intergenerational equity.
Alausa said Nigeria now had an opportunity to shape the future it wants rather than simply wait for future challenges to emerge.
He urged stakeholders working on the foresight initiative to move beyond theoretical scenarios and connect their findings to the tangible reforms already underway in education and other sectors.
The Minister maintained that the most important measure of the country’s progress would ultimately be whether Nigerian children and young people receive better education, acquire relevant skills, find productive opportunities and are able to contribute meaningfully to national development.
He said the government’s responsibility was therefore to translate the country’s demographic strength into a national advantage through purposeful leadership, evidence-based planning and sustained investment in human capital.
“Nigeria has changed, and it has changed for good,” Alausa said.
The 2025 Nigeria 2050: Child Foresight Analysis for Futures Literacy and Intergenerational Equity is part of the Anticipatory Governance and Foresight Capacity Programme of the Office of the Vice President, supported technically by UNICEF.
The initiative examines the risks, opportunities and drivers likely to shape the lives of Nigerian children aged 0 to 17 and young people aged 15 to 35 towards 2050, with the aim of strengthening futures literacy, anticipatory governance and intergenerational equity in national planning.
