Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive from Stable, affirming its Long Term Issuer Default Ratings at B, on the back of rising foreign reserves and ongoing economic reforms.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, announced the development in a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday, saying gross reserves climbed to $54.9 billion as at September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in mid April 2024.
According to the Minister, a Positive Outlook signals a possible rating upgrade if current trends are sustained. Fitch said the action reflects reform of Nigeria’s policy framework and growing confidence that reform momentum will continue.
The agency linked improved reserves to increased formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows and higher export receipts and remittances.
It said better reserve quality has strengthened resilience to external shocks and projected current account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026.
Fitch also cited greater naira flexibility and disinflation. It forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 4 percent in 2025, and expects growth above 4 percent in 2027 and 2028 driven by non-oil activity. Crude oil production has met OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while ramp up of domestic refining is reducing refined product imports and forex demand. Average inflation is expected to ease to 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On fiscal and financial sectors, Fitch expects tax reforms to raise non oil revenue to GDP ratio and projects general government debt to average 32 percent of GDP from 2026 to 2028, well below B median of 56 percent.
It recognised Nigeria’s liquid domestic debt market and bank recapitalisation, with many banks holding capital adequacy ratios above 20 percent.
With the latest action, all three major rating agencies have taken positive steps on Nigeria in 2026. S&P Global upgraded Nigeria to B from B- in May, Moody’s revised outlook to Positive in August, while FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status from September 21, 2026.
Oyedele said the Positive Outlook validates reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tax reforms, adding that medium term ambition is to place Nigeria on path to investment grade to lower cost of capital, crowd in private investment and create jobs.
He acknowledged areas flagged by Fitch including still high inflation relative to peers, low government revenue and high interest cost share, saying the reform programme is designed to address them.
The government listed priorities to sustain reform momentum and transparent forex regime, raise revenue through new tax laws, improve fiscal governance, advance structural reforms for non oil growth and translate macro stability to shared prosperity through food security, jobs, human development and support for small businesses.
The Minister noted Fitch guidance that rating upgrade could follow sustained disinflation, stronger reserves and stronger non oil revenue mobilisation.
