Four years ago, Nigeria’s oil industry was struggling. Output had collapsed to about 1.1 million barrels per day, tanker loadings were being cut short, and the country that had long led Africa in crude production was struggling to fill even the quota the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had assigned to it.
In September 2026, the picture looked very different. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows a single day peak of 1.84 million barrels, an average of 1,717,030 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, and a fifth straight month of meeting the OPEC quota.
Nigeria produced a daily average of 1,717,030 barrels of crude oil and condensate in September, a 2.34% rise on August.
The best day reached 1.84 million barrels, and the weakest recorded 1.68 million, a narrow spread that points to steady operations through the month.
In strict crude oil terms, excluding condensate, output averaged 1.53 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 102% of the 1.5mbpd quota set by OPEC.
The five-month record reads 1.53mbpd in May 1.55mbpd in June 1.51mbpd in July 1.50mbpd in August and 1.53mbpd in September.
By terminal, the Forcados Terminal led with an average of 320.32 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), followed by the Bonny Terminal at 303.27kbpd.
The NUPRC credited the performance to stable production across most producing assets and the absence of any major pipeline outage, which raised uptime and improved crude evacuation.
THE SCALE OF THE RECOVERY
In 2022, production fell to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day, among the lowest levels in decades. The causes were well known. Industrial scale crude theft drained volumes from export pipelines.
Vandalism forced shutdowns on key systems. Force majeure declarations on major export streams became familiar headlines. Ageing infrastructure and years of thin investment meant fields could not easily make up the shortfall.
The consequences went beyond lost barrels. Nigeria’s crude oil earnings underpin the federal budget and foreign exchange supply, so every month of weak output translated into pressure on public finances. The country also found itself unable to capture the full benefit of the quota OPEC allowed it to produce.
The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 reshaped the sector. It created the NUPRC as the dedicated upstream regulator, separating regulation from commercial operations and promising clearer rules for investors. Officials have since described the PIA as having brought structure, transparency and renewed confidence to the industry.
Under the commission’s leadership, first Gbenga Komolafe and, more recently, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, the strategy has rested on three connected ideas: protect what is already being produced, bring dormant capacity back, and attract the capital needed for new barrels.
STEP ONE: STOPPING THE LEAKAGE
The first priority was to secure the barrels Nigeria already had. The commission has said a mix of what it calls kinetic and non kinetic interventions, meaning security operations alongside monitoring, community engagement and data tracking, cut crude theft to about 5,000 barrels per day. Officials link that reduction directly to the climb in output from the 2022 trough.
The regulator also approved 37 new evacuation routes, giving operators more options for moving crude and reducing dependence on a few vulnerable pipelines. New rules on hydrocarbon metering, fiscal oil price determination and cargo declaration were introduced to improve accountability and close revenue leakages. Better data, the commission argues, makes theft harder to hide and allows faster decisions on the ground.
The results showed up in the numbers over time. Output stood at about 1.46 million barrels per day in October 2024, according to figures cited by the commission. By January 2025 it had reached about 1.75 million. By late 2025, the commission described unreconciled daily production as ranging between 1.7 and 1.83 million barrels, and Mr Komolafe told an industry summit that output had reached 1.8 million.
STEP TWO: PROJECT ONE MILLION BARRELS
With losses contained, attention turned to growth. In 2024, the NUPRC launched the Project One Million Barrels initiative, which aims to add about a million barrels per day to national output and lift production to 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2026.
The programme is built on several levers. The first is reactivating shut-in and dormant fields and wells, assets that hold proven resources but sit idle because of funding gaps, partner disputes or technical problems. The commission has pledged to fast track approvals to bring them back, and it has asked marginal and major operators alike to present clear production plans.
The second is collaboration. The commission describes the initiative as a joint effort among operators, service providers, financiers and host communities, an acknowledgement that stable communities and available financing matter as much as geology.
The third is new acreage. The commission offered 24 oil and gas assets in its 2024 licensing round, with further offers planned. Officials say some of the acreages could begin producing within a year, and they have pointed to the growing capability of indigenous companies as a reason for optimism.
The commission has also encouraged enhanced recovery techniques at existing fields, which can add barrels faster than building new projects from scratch.
Much of the country’s untapped potential lies offshore, and the commission has said as much of the capacity to raise output is locked in deepwater areas. A technical workshop for deepwater stakeholders focused on unlocking more than 810,000 barrels per day of new production by improving project economics and speeding up decisions.
Industry voices have been direct about the obstacles. International operators note that natural decline in deepwater fields can erode as much as 15% of output each year, which means new projects must first replace lost volumes before they add to the total. They also stress that geology, cost, risk and reward decide where capital goes. That is why fiscal terms, and approval timelines have become central to the regulator’s agenda.
BACKING FROM THE TOP
The drive has had political support. In April 2026, as daily production touched 1.84 million barrels, Finance Minister Wale Edun praised the NUPRC and urged it to push towards 2mbpd. He noted that President Bola Tinubu had mandated higher production even before the Middle East conflict disrupted global energy markets.
Ms Eyesan used the same visit to explain a dip in February, which she attributed to incidents at some strategic facilities and to turnaround maintenance. She said the problems had been fixed and output was ramping up again. She also confirmed the commission’s compliance with Executive Order 9 of 2026, which suspends the 30% Frontier Exploration Fund deduction from profit oil and gas, along with other management fees, and directs that the money be remitted straight to the Federation Account.
Alongside this, the commission has enforced the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, which guarantees crude feedstock to local refineries. The policy ties upstream output to the national goal of refining more at home.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SIDE OF THE GROWTH
The NUPRC says higher output must come with lower emissions. Its Upstream Decarbonisation Framework targets the end of routine gas flaring by 2030 and a 60% cut in methane emissions by 2031. A carbon credits framework is meant to reward operators that reduce emissions, and officials describe Nigeria’s gas reserves, put at about 210 trillion cubic feet, as a pillar of the energy transition.
WHAT STILL STANDS IN THE WAY
Despite the progress, the distance to the 2.5-million-barrel target is real. September’s average of about 1.72 million barrels of crude and condensate is far above the 2022 low but well short of the end of year goal. Several challenges remain.
Operational reliability is the first. The February dip showed that a single run of incidents or a heavy maintenance schedule can pull monthly output down, and September’s strong figures owed much to the absence of major pipeline outages. Security of assets must hold, because the theft that cost the country so much has been reduced rather than eliminated.
Investment is the second. Dormant fields need money and agreement among partners, and deepwater projects need final investment decisions that depend on global prices, fiscal terms and the speed of approvals. Natural decline means standing still is not an option, since existing fields lose output every year unless they are replenished.
Community relations are the third. Host community stability remains a condition for uninterrupted production, and the commission has said as much by naming communities as partners in its programme.
OUTLOOK
The story of the past four years is one of recovery driven by a mix of enforcement, regulation and incentives. Output has climbed from 1.1 million barrels per day in 2022 to a peak of 1.84 million in September 2026. Nigeria has met its OPEC quota for five straight months, and the regulator’s data points to a more stable operating environment than at any time in recent memory.
The final quarter of the year will test whether the gains can be held. If operators keep the pipelines running, dormant fields come back on schedule and new investment decisions follow, the country could move closer to the 2-million-barrel mark that policymakers are now urging. If not, the 1.84-million-barrel peak may prove to be a high point rather than a floor. For an economy that still depends heavily on oil, the stakes are high either way.
