Renowned Economist and accomplished International Development Consultant, Prof. Ken Ife, has outlined a multi-pronged strategy for Nigeria to achieve a $1 trillion economy, stressing that sustainable prosperity can only be realised when economic growth consistently outpaces population and urbanisation growth.
Ife spoke at a recent Webinar organised by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria (NBGN) themed “Global Challenges: Survival Strategies, Building Resilience and Driving Sustainable Prosperity in Nigeria’s Match to $1trillion Economy.”
According to him, achieving the target would depend on industrial productivity, higher capacity utilisation of the country’s natural endowments, regional specialisation, digital infrastructure, and stronger public-private synergy.
He called for activation of subnational economic blocs, saying states could build competitive advantages and formalise grassroots commercial clusters by setting up specialised regional investment councils, MSME development funds, and localised business mentoring initiatives.
Ife also emphasised the need to accelerate the integration of digital payment tools, structured database systems, and automation within small and medium enterprises, noting that digital readiness would help bridge Nigeria’s productivity gap and position local firms into global supply chains.
On infrastructure, he advocated scaling up large corporate-communal partnerships to fund industrial farming, logistics networks, and independent power projects, arguing that this approach would ease the fiscal burden on government while guaranteeing operational efficiency.
Ife identified seven core pathways to the $1trillion target: monetary policy, capital markets and financial institutions, a circular bio-economy for export-led growth and industrialisation; fossil energy and solid minerals; youth entrepreneurship, innovation, and digital economy; major infrastructure corridors; manufacturing ecosystems; free trade zones and special economic zones; and an overarching framework for sectoral GDP contributions.
He set out specific benchmarks for the financial sector, including building a combined banking and financial institutions asset pool of $45 billion, bringing inflation down to a single-digit target of 8.0% by the second phase of reforms, which would allow the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to cut its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 10.5%, and raising the Nigerian Exchange’s market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio from about 30% to 70%.
Ife proposed a phased rollout of reforms. Phase one (2026-2027) would focus on liquidity injection and stabilisation, including securing a transparent, market-clearing exchange rate and de-risking the economy to attract foreign portfolio investment into long-term infrastructure bonds.
The Phase Two (2028-2030) would centre on commercial asset securitisation, mandatory public listings of state-owned entities, including NNPC Limited and unbundled power generation and distribution companies on the Nigerian Exchange, expanding total domestic market depth beyond $350 billion.
Phase Three (2031-2033) would position Nigeria as a subregional settlement hub, deepening the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to capture more than 45% of cross-border financial clearing within the ECOWAS sub-region.
On agriculture, Ife warned that relying on raw acreage or untapped agricultural inputs produces unpredictable outputs and conceals post-harvest losses.
He said transforming Nigeria’s swampy regions, tropical forests, and Guinea and Sudan savannah zones into industrial engines would require a highly technical, evidence-led approach.
Under his sectoral contribution model for a projected $1.05 trillion economy by 2033, Ife estimated that energy and solid minerals would contribute the largest share at $240 billion, followed by manufacturing and special economic zones at $230 billion, corridor logistics and trade at $180 billion, the circular bio-economy and agro-industry at $160 billion, digital services and tech exports at $130 billion, and financial services and banking at $110 billion.
Ife cautioned that broad-based tax increases could suppress economic activity if not guided by data, calling instead for forensic oversight and structural efficiency in revenue collection.
He cited the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) Act 2025 and the four new fiscal reform laws of 2025, the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, the Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Act, and the Joint Revenue Board Act, alongside the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and Presidential Order 009, as key instruments for driving sub-national fiscal convergence.
He recommended forensic tracking of revenue-generating agencies such as Customs, the national oil company, and federal and state revenue services to eliminate leakages, as well as GIS-led property enumeration at the sub-national level to expand state’ internally generated revenue without raising tax rates on vulnerable groups.
Ife further called for closer tracking of fiscal flows to local governments, following the Supreme Court ruling on local government fiscal autonomy, saying statutory allocations should be disbursed transparently and matching grants tied to verified local service delivery.
